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Oil jumps 4.7% on supply fears!

Oil prices are rising sharply higher after the West imposed tougher sanctions on Russia, blocking Russian banks from SWIFT, (the international payments system)

  • Fears that these moves will disrupt supply, in an already tight market have pushed oil prices back over $100 per barrel.

Without being part of the international payment systems, the possibility of exporting commodities, including oil is greatly reduced.

Goldman Sachs have upwardly revised their one-month Brent price forecast to $115 a barrel, up from $95.WSJ finds   

In order for oil prices to fall a sustained increase in oil supply is needed.

The news last week that the US was looking to work with other nations to release more reserves into the market helped bring oil prices off fresh 7 year highs

*Statista chart on rally of oil prices since Russian invasion of Ukraine


According to OPEC, the jump in oil prices over $100 doesn’t actually reflect an imbalance between supply and demand.

Although this stance could still change should Russia experience problems exporting its oil owing to some Russian bank being excluded from SWIFT.

The broad expectation is that OPCE+ is likely to stick to its current plan of raising oil output gradually, by adding 400,000 bpd extra a month, even after the latest Russia, Ukraine developments.

  •  Russian oil accounts for around 10% of global supply so any slowdown in supply would be significant.

Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting, OPEC+ downwardly revised its surplus forecast for 2022 by around 200,000 bpd, highlighting the increased tightness in the market.

According to the International Energy Agency, OPEC+ was pumping around 1 million barrels, below the current quota, which raises questions over how useful another increase in the output target would be.






Photo: Opec